中国循证儿科杂志 ›› 2019, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (6): 448-452.

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

血乳酸清除率和血清降钙素原清除率对脓毒性休克患儿预后的预测价值

陈真真1,张文祥1,刘志婷2,李自普1   

  1. 1 山东省青岛妇女儿童医院PICU 青岛,266000;2 山东省滨州医学院附属医院手术室 滨州,256600
  • 收稿日期:2019-12-03 修回日期:2019-12-17 出版日期:2019-12-25 发布日期:2019-12-25
  • 通讯作者: 李自普
  • 基金资助:
     

Predictive value of lactate and procalcitonin clearance for prognosis assessment in children with septic shock

CHEN Zhen-zhen1, ZHANG Wen-xiang1, LIU Zhi-ting2, LI Zi-pu   

  1.  1 PICU, Qingdao Women&Children Hospital, Qingdao 266000, China; 2 Operating Room, Affilitated Hospital of Binzhou Medical College, Binzhou 256600, China
  • Received:2019-12-03 Revised:2019-12-17 Online:2019-12-25 Published:2019-12-25
  • Contact: LI Zi-pu
  • Supported by:
     

摘要: 目的探讨血乳酸和血清降钙素原(PCT)水平的动态变化对脓毒性休克患儿第28 d预后的预测价值。方法病例对照研究,纳入2017年2月1日至2019年2月1日山东省青岛妇女儿童医院PICU收治的脓毒性休克连续病例,根据入PICU 28 d内生存情况分为死亡组和存活组,采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评价序贯器官功能衰竭(SOFA)评分、血乳酸清除率和血清PCT清除率对患儿入PICU 28 d内生存情况的预测价值。结果50例脓毒性休克患儿进入本文分析,死亡组17例,存活组33例。①死亡组SOFA评分、CRP和N端-B型钠尿肽前体水平高于存活组(P分别为<0.001、0.041、0.017),PLT计数低于存活组(P=0.010);存活组腹腔感染所占比例高于死亡组(P=0.040)。②死亡组初始血乳酸、入PICU 6 h血乳酸和120 h血清PCT水平高于存活组(P分别为0.043、<0.01、0.044),血乳酸清除率以及24、48、72和120 h血清PCT清除率低于存活组(P<0.001、<0.001、0.009、0.033、0.006)。③脓毒性休克患儿预后的预测:不同时点中,120 h血清PCT清除率的约登指数最大(F=3.631,P=0.015)。SOFA评分(>11.5分)、6 h血乳酸清除率(<15.8%)和120 h血清PCT清除率(<70.8%)联合,AUC达0.986,约登指数0.892,敏感度96.9%,特异度92.3%。结论SOFA评分、6 h血乳酸清除率和120 h血清PCT清除率对脓毒性休克患儿28 d内预后有较高的预测价值,三项指标联合应用时预测效能最佳。

 

Abstract: ObjectiveTo explore the predictive value of clearance of blood lactate and serum procalcitonin for prognosis at 28 d of septic shock in children. MethodsA retrospective analysis was done in 50 cases of children with septic shock from February 1st 2017 to February 1st 2019. They were divided into survival group and dead group. The predictive value of Sequential Organ Failure (SOFA) Score, clearance of blood lactate and clerance of serum procalcitonin for prognosis at 28 d of septic shock in children was evaluated by receiver operator characteristic curve. ResultsFifty cases of children with septic shock were analyzed, including survival group (n=33) and dead group (n=17). ①Compared with the survival group, SOFA Score, CPR and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide were higher (P<0.001, =0.041,=0.017,respectively), and platelet count was lower(P=0.010)in dead group. The cases of celiac infection in survival group was higher than that in dead group (P=0.040). ② Blood lactate level at initial stage and after 6 h, serum procalcitonin level at 120 h in dead group were higher than those in survival group (P =0.043, <0.01, =0.044, respectively). Lactate clearance rate and the PCT clearance rate on 24 h,48 h,72 h and 120 h were obviously lower in the dead group(P<0.00,<0.001,=0.009,=0.033,=0.006, respectively). ③The predictive value for prognosis in children with septic shock: Yoden index of serum PCT clearance rate at 120 h was the highest(F=3.631,P =0.015). The area under the AUC curve of combined index (SOFA score>11.5, lactate clearance rate on 6 h<15.8% and the PCT clearance rate on 120 h<70.8%) was 0.986, Yoden index was 0.892, the sensitivity was 96.9%, the specificity was 92.3%. ConclusionThe SOFA score, serum lactic acid clearance rate at 6 h and serum PCT clearance rate at 120 h had a good evaluation value for the prognosis of children with septic shock. The combined application of the three indexes can improve the forecasting efficiency.

中图分类号: